Many medical school hopefuls wonder how hard four years of pre-med classes will really be, and what percentage of pre-med students will actually become doctors. The undergraduate pre-med years are long, challenging, and students are generally young. Because of this, many students will change paths over the course of their college careers as they discover new interests (and new aversions). Learn more about the pre-med timeline here.
Just how many pre-med freshman will remain pre-med as seniors, and just how many of those pre-med seniors will actually get into medical school varies each year. But some general information is highlighted below.
image source: pinterest
Percentage of Pre-Meds That Become Doctors
Below is the general timeline to become a physician in the US. This is a long and rigorous path, and many students drop the program at various points along the way. Learn more about the medical school timeline here.
A theoretical group of 100 pre-med freshman undergraduate students can be used to visualize the following statistics, to see how many of these 100 would become practicing doctors.
Pre-Med Freshman to Pre-Med Seniors
One of the largest studies on US pre-med program adherence found only 16.5% of pre-med freshman were still on track for medical school by their senior year. Meaning these students had completed all required pre-med coursework to apply for medical school. This study included 102 universities and followed over 15,000 undergrad students.
Clearly, completion of the pre-med requirements is the biggest barrier to enter the medical field. Most pre-med freshman will not remain on the pre-med track. Students are statistically more likely to drop out of the pre-med track as an undergrad than they are to be rejected to medical school.
Specific statistics vary from school to school, but generally a large percentage of students who start their college careers on the pre-med track ultimately leave the program to pursue something else. Many discover new interests or career paths as they progress through their courses. Many discover they simply don’t like the field once they get their first experience working in a clinical environment.
The most significant challenge noted by pre-med students across multiple studies is negative experiences in one or more chemistry courses. Chemistry is a notoriously challenging subject and many students leave the pre-med track after only one college chemistry course. Read more on how many students fail organic chemistry here.
Regardless, leaving the pre-med track is rarely about ability or intelligence. Though the courses may be challenging, most students are capable of completing the pre-med requirements. But medicine is still a long and challenging track that can have a significant effect on students both mentally and financially. Many students begin to consider whether these are really sacrifices they want to make.
A number of students do complete the required pre-med coursework to apply to medical schools upon graduation. But not all of these students will be accepted.
Pre-Med Seniors to Medical Students
According to the AAMC, only 36.5% of medical school applicants were ultimately accepted into a program in the 2020/2021 application cycle. This acceptance rate is relatively consistent with previous application cycles.
Individual medical schools usually have acceptance rates between 5-7%. But students generally apply to more than one program to increase their odds of acceptance. This results in an overall acceptance rate around 40% each year.
Once accepted to a medical school, most students do graduate on track. Medical school is not a “weed out” program. The process of medical school admissions is highly selective, but once a school has chosen and invested in their students, they want them to succeed. So while medical school is stressful, most programs will work with students to provide whatever resources they need to be successful. Read more about the medical school timeline here.
But medical school graduation is still not the end of the road. To become a doctor, a student must complete a medical residency before they can practice independently. And there are always more medical school graduates than there are US residency positions. Meaning even with a medical degree, some students still cannot yet practice medicine as doctors.
Medical Students to Doctors
Once students complete their medical school program, they must successfully “match” into a medical residency program in their chosen area of practice. After some research, medical students first apply and (hopefully) interview with the programs they’re interested in. After this interview process is “The Match.” The Match is a computer program in which students rank their preferred residency programs and residency programs in turn rank their preferred students. The computer then uses this data to “match” each medical student to a residency program.
According to the AMA, approximately 95% of medical students match into a residency program upon graduation. But this means about 5% of medical students do not. In 2021, MD students matched at slightly higher rates than DO students, with about 93% of MD students successfully matching compared to about 90% of DO students successfully matching.
But students that do not match will usually apply successfully the following cycle. They generally spend the time in between focusing on research or other projects. So the vast majority medical school graduates will still become practicing physicians at some point. But not matching in the first application cycle will lengthen the timeline.
Final Thoughts
Each of these steps in the path to medicine is a challenge. Overall, according to this data, the path to medicine has an approximate 7% success rate. Meaning about 7% of pre-med college freshman will actually become medical doctors.
These figures may be slightly higher when factoring for students who apply to medical schools multiple cycles. Many students are rejected from medical school during the first application cycle. But many of these students are ultimately admitted to a program their second or third cycle.
Students should not be discouraged by these numbers. Again, most students are capable of completing the pre-med requirements. And most students are capable of performing well on the MCAT, receiving medical school interview invitations, and matching into a residency program. But patience is a virtue, and students should be willing to accept their path to medicine may not be as linear as they had expected. They should also be willing to self-reflect, and continuously improve in areas they may be lacking. Ultimately, the most common reason pre-med students do not become doctors is a loss of interest. If a student is really passionate about medicine, nothing is impossible.
